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The Dred vs The Spread

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Going .500 or making 50% is good when referring to hitting in baseball or shooting in basketball. When it comes to football, half is rarely good outside of third-down conversion rate. Last week’s picks were slightly better than 50% considering the wildcard pick between the 49ers and Titans was a success with San Francisco covering the three points given to Tennessee. This week looks to be a more promising as there appears to be three “fa sho” locks in week 8 of the season.

Week 8 “Fa Sho” Picks

When it comes to the spread, when the home team is getting points usually it is a sign the home team is pretty dire which is why this week’s schedule suggest there may be as many as three teams definitely losing at home, though there are two “fa sho” picks starting with the Steelers, who are on an upward trend after winning two straight contests, as they travel to Oakland to play the Raiders.  The Raiders are coming off a bye week after a loss to the Chiefs in week 6. Though Oakland is ranked 8th in the league in defense, they will be without star safety, Tyvon Branch, who is out nursing an ankle injury. The Steelers have performed very well in recent weeks, holding opponents to an average 11 points per game while scoring 19 points in both match-ups. Both these teams come into the week hoisting two of the four worst offenses in the NFL this season as the Steelers are ranked 29th while the Raiders are ranked 30th in the NFL. This one is easy to figure out. Look for Big Ben to keep ticking while leading Pittsburg to a third consecutive victory. Take the Steelers (-2.5) for “fa sho” number one.

The next “fa sho” pick derives from a battle between two low flying birds as the 2-4 Falcons soar into Tempe, Arizona to face the 3-4 Cardinals. Both these teams are mediocre on defense, ranked 18th (Falcons) and 19th (Cardinals) in the league. The Falcons come into the game banged up at the wide receiver positions as Julio Jones and Roddy White are out, though running back, Steven Jackson, will be making his return after missing four weeks to injury. No problem for the “dirty birds” who start Matt Ryan at quarterback. Unfortunately for the Cardinals,  they start Carson Palmer who gifts interception like its December 25th. If the Falcons lose this game their season is done.  Besides, Vegas is giving the Falcons points. Take  the points (+2.5) and the “dirty birds”; “fa sho”!

This next “fa sho” pick is the most uncomplicated as the Seahawks give away 11 points to the Rams who lost starting quarterback Sam Bradford for the season to an ACL injury last week. The Rams are set to start Kellen Clemens, who is more of a cattle rancher than NFL quarterback, versus one of the nastiest defenses in the league. The Rams are no good on the defensive side of the ball as they rank towards the bottom in the league while Russell Wilson leads the fourth rank offense into the Edward Jones Dome.  It is possible the Rams get shut out Monday night.  Take the Seahawks (-11).

Wildcard Pick

This weekend’s wildcard pick involves the 49ers who were the wildcard pick last week versus the Titans. This weekend is even more simple for the 49ers as they face arguably the most inferior team in the league when they square off against the Jaguars in Wembley Stadium this Sunday. The book makers in Las Vegas can not give the Jags enough points, but since they are giving the Jags 11 points take the 49ers (-14.5). It’s not quite “fa sho”, but it is something to consider if your picking games considering the atrocity the Jags have displayed this season thus far.

So this week I’m stepping it up by picking three “fa sho” games to go along with a wildcard pick. Once again, take the Steelers (-2.5) on the road versus the Raiders, the Falcons (+2.5) versus the Cardinals in Arizona, and the Seahawks (-11) versus the Sheep Monday night. The wildcard takes place in London where it’s advised to take the 49ers (-14.5) against the Jaguars. Til next week, pick wisely. Thank you and stay blessed.

You may follow myself, Notty,  on twitter @nottydred for more stats, information, Atlanta Hawks news and sports entertainment.  Remember, this is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling is ill-advised. Gamble at your own risk.

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