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The Dred vs The Spread Week 5

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Atlanta Falcons v Baltimore Ravens

Here we go again! After a bounce back week 4 of the NFL where I was 1-2 on “fa sho” picks and 1-0 on wild card picks, I believe I’m getting adjusted to how teams want to play as well as how teams will play. Last week the Steelers defense really started to show their age as Adrian Peterson, who rushed for 140 yards along with 2 touchdowns, and Matt Cassel put in work versus Dick LeBeau’s 3-4 defensive scheme. Last week i referred to Matt Cassel as “Flat” Cassel, but after throwing for 250 yards, 2 touchdowns with no picks, he performed like his name should be nicknamed Matty Icey…..not that number 2 in Atlanta. It was also a let down week for the Ravens who have been very inconsistent on the offensive side of the ball.  Outside of Joe Flacco throwing 5 picks, the Ravens rush the ball 9 times for a measly 24 yards. Repeat, Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce combined for 9 carries and 24 rushing yards! Pathetic play calling by Jim Caldwell. Washington came through versus the Raiders as expected considering the Raiders started Matt Flynn due to Terrelle Pryor’s concussion the previous week and Mike Shanahan/RG3 going 0-4 seemed unfathomable. The wild card was easy simply because the Jaguars were given single digit points (9) versus a good team (Colts).

Week 5 “Fa Sho” Picks

This week there are 3 “fa sho” picks and a wild card. The first “fa sho” involves the Chiefs and Titans. The Chiefs look very impressive thus far boasting the number 2 ranked defense while only turning the ball over 3 times thus far which is third in the league behind the Titans and Colts. The Titans have the 7th ranked defense and while they are the only team yet to give the ball to the opposition, expect that to change this week with Ryan Fitzpatrick starting in place of the injured Jake Locker. For that reason take the Chiefs (-3). It’s a “fa sho”!

Next on the “fa sho” tip we go to Jerry’s World where the Cowboys are taking on a juggernaut in Peyton Manning and the Broncos. The odd makers are giving the Cowboys 7 points which may seem like a lot but considering the Broncos have scored a league high 179 points in 4 games behind the “sheriff”, Peyton Manning’s 16 touchdown to 0 picks, it’s almost a given the will beat the Cowboys by 7 unless you believe Tony Romo and the 10th ranked Cowboys offense can score touchdown for touchdown with Super-manning. It’s much harder to believe in Romo than it is believing the Broncos (-7) will take out the Cowboys.

“Fa sho” pick number 3 is perhaps the easiest pick to make based on the lack of ability to close out games by the home team for Monday Night Football. This week the Falcons will host another prime time game in the Georgia Dome when the Jets and rookie quarterback Geno Smith come to completely ruin the Falcons “Super Bowl or bust” season. While there is no doubt the Falcons are the better team and should win this game, it is very doubtful they best the Jets by 10 points. It’s just not the Falcons forte to win by such a margin. Mike Smith and Dirk Koetter believe in taking their foot off the gas down the stretch of games. For that reason and that reason only, throw out the stats and numbers, take the Jets (+10) versus the dirty birds.

Wildcard Pick

The wildcard game of the week is the 1-3 Eagles going to MetLife Stadium to face the totally defeated Giants. Taking into consideration Eli Manning has never finished below .500 as a full time starter in the NFL, it would seem safe to say 0-5 would be detrimental to him going 8-8 this season. The Eagles defense is terrible but the Giants offensive line may be worse. This is the week Chip Kelly’s fastbreak offense gets back in rhythm. Michael Vick has played well this season. Look for his stellar play to continue and take the 3 points with the Eagles.

Once again, momentum is being built. By next weekend it will all make sense…..hopefully. Til then, thank you and stay blessed.

Follow me on twitter @nottydred

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